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Letter "W" » Wayne Ayers Quotes
«You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished.»
«Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer.»
«This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year.»
«We're seeing on an almost daily basis signs across all sectors that this recovery is for real, and this trade number is confirmation of that. We've seen a pick-up in imports, indicative that the economy has turned the corner.»
«To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending.»
«The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.»
«I don't think they needed an excuse to sit on their hands, and clearly they're going to do that. They may not even move until [their] August [meeting] at the earliest. They have all the flexibility they need, given the weakness of the labor market, and this [productivity report] gives them even more so.»
«They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.»
«Consider how much of a [spending] boom we had in the '90s. The bad news is that it will take a long while to work through that. We're looking at the first quarter of next year before we see convincing evidence [of a recovery].»
«It's clear the consumer has progressively turned more cautious and conservative. Given that, and given that business capital spending has yet to come back, how long can this recovery keep on going? These numbers certainly make that a legitimate question.»