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Letter "M" » Mark Vitner Quotes
«Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame.»
«Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting. It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.»
«The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven. Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.»
«The No. 1 reason new orders and production are falling is that inventories have risen in recent months as consumer spending has slowed. Such a buildup was acceptable when economic growth was accelerating. Now that growth is cooling off, businesses will need to curb stockpiles.»
«Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.»
«If the ISM index does not rise as much as the Chicago PMI did in May, it will likely catch up in June. [This] suggests the wartime related slowdown is over.»
«I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines.»
«There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.»
«The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.»
«The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.»